The ICRA has made this assumption at a time when there is an atmosphere of uncertainty due to the omicron variant of the corona virus.
On Tuesday, ratings agency ICRA estimated that real GDP growth for the Indian economy could be as high as 9 percent in both 2022 and FY 2023. The ICRA has made this assumption at a time when there is an atmosphere of uncertainty due to the omicron variant of the corona virus.
The rating agency stressed that the third quarter figures for 2021-22 FY do not provide credible evidence that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has met the criteria for sustainable growth recovery set by the committee. Therefore, changing the policy position to ‘neutral’ in February 2022 cannot be guaranteed.
Aditi Nair, chief economist at ICRA, said: “The October-November 2021 figures do not indicate a broad-based growth recovery in India. Whether.
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Icara says seven of the 13 key indicators for the economy indicate growth above pre-corona levels. These include GST e-way bill generation (+26.7 percent), non-oil exports (+26.0 percent), rail freight (+20.2 percent), Coal India Limited output (+15.7 percent), power generation (+9.9 percent). , Petrol consumption (+6.4 percent) and port cargo traffic (+4.0 percent). A similar trend was observed in the second quarter.
At the same time, the six indicators in October-November 2021 have declined compared to last year, indicating that the recovery in the economy has not been mass-based. These 6 indicators are below all pre-corona levels. These include scooter production (-25.1 percent), domestic airline traffic (-22.8 percent), vehicle registration (-22.8 percent), diesel consumption (-6.8 percent), passenger vehicle (PV) manufacturing (-3.1 percent) and motorcycle manufacturing. . (-2.6 percent).
The rating agency concludes that there is not enough growth momentum to ensure that it is “neutral” during the monetary policy review in February 2022.
“We expect the number of adults receiving both doses of the vaccine to increase by 85-90 per cent by March 2022. Also announcing a vaccine and booster dose for 15-18 year olds is a welcome step. It still remains. The third wave of corona virus in India. It remains to be seen whether these steps will be successful.
The rating agency said restrictions were being imposed in many states to prevent the spread of the infection, which could temporarily affect the economic recovery in the fourth quarter.
The ICRA said, “We have maintained our forecast of 9% GDP growth in FY 2022. However, a recovery in K-shape could be seen during this period, where the growth line of the organized sector will go up and the growth line will go down to the unorganized sector.” “In FY2023, too, we expect the economy to grow at the same rate of 9 percent. However, in FY2023, there will be even greater levels of growth,” the agency said.